HBO tipped us off to this exchange with Mike Delman, of Microsoft and Brier Dudley from the Seattle Times during E3 week. It's telling.
Q: So will "Halo 4" be a Kinect game?
A: I'm sure we'll have some Kinect in it but we're not that far along.
In addition to this exchange, given that it would appear a lot of the future 'Marquee' Xbox 360 games will have some from of Xbox Kinect functionality built into the game, it would be pretty safe to expect it in Halo 4.